Hotter nights could lead to 60 percent increase in global deaths: study – The Hill

Hotter nights could lead to 60 percent increase in global deaths: study - The Hill
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The story at a glance

  • Numerous studies have detailed the detrimental health effects of rising daytime temperatures as a result of climate change.

  • Now new research highlights the extreme damage that rising temperatures at night can have on human health.

  • According to models, by 2100 the world could see a 60 percent increase in deaths due to rising temperatures at night.

United States a hot summer and a warm autumn on the way, new research highlights the potentially deadly consequences of rising temperatures at night.

was published Lancet Planetary HealthData from Japan, South Korea and China show that warmer nighttime temperatures could lead to a 60 percent increase in death rates worldwide by the end of the century.

Study co-author Yuqiang Zhang of the University of North Carolina explained that previous studies on the lethal effects of rising heat have typically focused on extreme temperatures during the day, while “the risks of rising temperatures at night have often been neglected.” statement.

According to the authors, ambient temperature at night can disrupt the normal physiology of sleep and subsequently lead to a number of complications, including immune system damage, chronic disease, and systemic inflammation. In urban areas, these consequences may be exacerbated urban heat island effect.

Besides, date display By 2100, “the total number of people exposed to nighttime heat is projected to increase four to eight times in the northern hemisphere compared to 2010.”

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The researchers measured warm night excess (HNE) in three regions between 1980 and 2015 and modeled projections for 2016–2100. Various climate change scenarios were applied and the measurements were monitored for the effect of daily mean temperature.

A total of 28 cities with different climates were included in the models, along with daily mortality records from local health agencies.

By 2090, the average intensity of hot nights in these cities will double from about 69 degrees Fahrenheit to 103.5 degrees. The target of a scenario where the intensity of the heat worsens at night The Paris Agreement they met According to the models, regions with the lowest average temperatures had the greatest potential for warming.

“HNE events are predicted to occur faster than daily mean temperature changes,” Zhang continued. “The frequency and average intensity of warm nights will increase by 30% and 60%, respectively, by 2100, while there will be less than a 20% increase for average daily temperatures.”

Co-author Haidong Kan of Fudan University in China added that governments and local policymakers should consider the findings to better prepare for the expected consequences of climate change.

However, because the data was collected from three countries, the researchers urged caution when generalizing the findings to the wider population. They are currently working on developing a larger, global database.

Meanwhile, “Locally, nighttime heat should be considered locally when designing a future heatwave warning system, especially for vulnerable and low-income communities that cannot afford the additional costs of air conditioning,” he said. “Stronger mitigation strategies, including global cooperation, should be considered to reduce the future impacts of warming.”

It was published in August. 10, 2022

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